01 · The reasoning, and the caveats
Why it’s built this way.
Every number on this page has a study behind it and a limitation printed next to it. Where the evidence is thin, it says so.
Your goal is yours. The method is mine.
How to read the numbers on this page
None of this is here to look rigorous. It is here because the dose I sell is smaller than the industry sells, and you should be able to check that rather than take my word for it.
02 · The dose
Three questions, three different answers.
40MIN/WK
To move your risk
Around forty minutes a week of strength work is where the association with living longer is strongest.
Meta analysis · n=7 · GRADE very low
The researchers rated their own confidence very low. Treat forty minutes as a direction, not a target.
2X/WK
To build muscle
Heavier work across multiple sets twice a week came out on top for muscle size.
Network MA · 119 studies · 3,364 people
Randomized trials, ranked against each other. About as good as this question gets.
3X/WK
To get strong
Heavy work, multiple sets, three or more times a week won, and the gap wasn’t small.
Network MA · 178 studies · 5,097 people
Same method, more trials. Strong for this question.
The heterogeneity, and what these don’t prove
Risk. Heterogeneity was high and the certainty was graded very low. Above about 140 minutes a week the picture is unclear rather than better.
Muscle. Twice a week isn’t a compromise between once and three times; for this outcome it’s the answer.
Strength. The strength arm is an open ended floor of three or more, not exactly three, and it’s private training rather than the program.
These are averages across thousands of people, not predictions about you.
03 · Strength has a ceiling, conditioning does not
Almost everybody sells you only the lifting.
1/5DEATH RATE
The fittest group against the least fit, over the follow up.
n=122,007 · treadmill tested · 2018
People were watched, not assigned. Fit people differ in many ways, so this shows a link, not a cause.
0CEILING
No point above which more fitness stopped being associated with lower risk.
Which isn’t true of most things
Same study, same limit. What’s unusual is that the line never flattened.
What the study doesn’t prove
It’s observational. Fitter people differ from less fit people in many ways, and the study cannot tell you that adding conditioning causes the gap.
Which is why conditioning is in every block rather than sold as an upgrade.
04 · Where the evidence is thinner than people claim
Three things I coach, and what they don’t do.
Breathing, mobility and conditioning all earn their place. None of them does what the internet says it does, and the honest version is below.
Breathing, mobility and conditioning, with the limits printed
Breathing. A 2023 review found a small effect on stress and the authors warned about study quality. I teach it because it’s cheap, portable and it works on the night you can’t sleep, not because it’s a cure.
Mobility. Stretching improves the range you can hold. It does not prevent injury, and the evidence for that is weak.
Conditioning. Bring whatever you own. I use it to notice what’s changing week to week, not to score you.
05 · The part an app can’t do
Reporting it to somebody changes what you do.
138STUDIES
Found that tracking your own progress helps.
n=19,951 people · 2016
Pooled experiments where people were actually assigned. Solid.
+EFFECT
Larger again when you report it to another person rather than only yourself.
And larger when recorded physically
From the same pooled set. This is why there’s a person in the loop and not just an app.
That’s the entire argument for a standing slot with a person in it rather than a cheaper app, and the reason the group works at all. It’s also why the program is built to end: once the reporting habit is yours, the person becomes optional.
All three studies, and what none of them show
Monitoring works, and works harder when you tell someone. 138 experiments, 19,951 people, 2016. The effect on reaching the goal was d=0.40. It was larger when progress was reported to another person, and larger again when it was physically written down.
Supervision alone changed the result. Eighteen trained men, twelve weeks, identical program. Sessions, sets and repetitions didn’t differ between the groups. Load did. Squat one rep max rose 33% supervised against 25% unsupervised, bench 22% against 15%. They didn’t do more work. They did heavier work, because they weren’t the ones choosing the load.
It only works if the person is worth answering to. A model of human support in health programs, 2011. Accountability functions through legitimacy, which has two halves: real expertise, and acting in the client’s interest. Where a coach seems illegitimate or controlling, accountability has been found to reduce adherence instead of raising it.
What none of them show. d=0.40 is a reliable nudge, not a transformation, and shouldn’t be sold as one. The supervision trial is eighteen trained men aged 18 to 35, supervised in person rather than over video, and says nothing about women, older adults or a first month of training; it’s the most useful of the three and the weakest. The third is a model, which is a well argued account of a mechanism rather than a measurement of one. And none of the three was conducted on you.
Your goal is yours. The method is mine.
You’re the expert on your life and I’m the expert on the method. Everything I suggest comes with a reason, something to notice, and a date it should have worked by.
See the program Or start with the group
Every figure on this page carries its sample size